* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/22/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 62 68 81 86 91 92 92 91 88 82 76 71 62 56 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 62 68 81 86 91 92 92 91 88 82 76 71 62 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 64 75 83 88 89 87 82 76 69 59 50 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 14 17 18 21 18 11 13 12 10 8 6 9 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 3 0 4 1 4 4 8 10 13 11 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 32 39 57 55 64 73 64 67 56 49 53 58 48 70 31 76 62 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.6 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.1 25.1 24.5 24.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 163 164 160 154 150 151 142 139 139 123 112 105 102 93 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 72 74 71 71 69 69 66 62 57 53 47 37 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 15 20 21 25 28 31 33 34 34 33 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 50 49 54 73 90 103 89 93 99 103 106 103 104 102 120 200 MB DIV 65 48 55 50 56 58 64 59 31 79 45 56 27 6 3 -22 -40 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -5 -1 0 4 -1 -7 -7 -9 -6 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 234 255 267 334 399 546 760 845 981 1137 1268 1362 1385 1419 1443 1401 1275 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.4 104.5 105.7 106.8 108.9 111.4 113.8 116.1 118.4 120.8 122.6 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 10 8 7 5 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 41 40 37 30 26 24 23 19 14 11 7 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 25. 29. 31. 30. 27. 23. 19. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 36. 41. 46. 47. 47. 46. 43. 37. 31. 26. 17. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 102.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.37 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 25.1% 20.1% 16.6% 12.8% 24.1% 22.1% 13.5% Logistic: 5.1% 20.9% 7.8% 4.8% 1.2% 7.5% 8.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 18.5% 5.4% 1.2% 1.0% 4.8% 2.5% 0.6% Consensus: 6.9% 21.5% 11.1% 7.5% 5.0% 12.2% 11.0% 5.8% DTOPS: 13.0% 18.0% 11.0% 12.0% 7.0% 20.0% 26.0% 3.0% SDCON: 9.9% 19.7% 11.0% 9.7% 6.0% 16.1% 18.5% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##