* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/22/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 50 54 65 74 81 84 86 85 86 85 84 76 68 61 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 50 54 65 74 81 84 86 85 86 85 84 76 68 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 55 63 69 73 74 72 71 71 66 56 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 10 12 13 16 18 20 17 12 13 12 8 13 11 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 3 5 6 3 2 4 5 3 3 8 7 6 1 5 SHEAR DIR 60 43 38 43 63 52 57 89 86 63 65 47 78 44 40 34 29 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.0 28.3 28.3 27.6 27.3 27.4 25.3 24.5 23.9 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 160 162 162 163 163 155 148 148 141 138 138 116 106 100 95 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 9 6 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 71 72 75 72 72 70 68 65 62 60 56 51 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 12 12 15 18 21 23 27 28 30 32 35 32 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 54 58 62 50 74 79 88 80 59 61 78 90 79 73 68 200 MB DIV 86 71 63 60 82 81 89 87 54 26 36 8 57 5 -3 -13 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 6 0 -4 -3 -5 -4 -8 -5 -2 0 LAND (KM) 184 174 168 206 225 329 444 638 769 904 1068 1206 1372 1450 1482 1438 1368 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.1 101.0 101.8 102.7 103.7 105.8 108.0 110.3 113.0 115.6 118.0 120.5 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 45 45 43 39 33 26 22 20 17 12 9 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 23. 25. 25. 25. 19. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 5. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 19. 30. 39. 46. 49. 51. 50. 51. 50. 49. 41. 33. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 100.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.40 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 24.9% 19.4% 15.6% 12.0% 23.1% 21.1% 19.1% Logistic: 6.1% 34.9% 17.0% 11.2% 3.4% 29.0% 23.8% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 19.8% 8.9% 3.6% 1.5% 9.2% 6.4% 1.9% Consensus: 6.2% 26.5% 15.1% 10.1% 5.7% 20.4% 17.1% 9.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 17.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 14.0% 35.0% 15.0% SDCON: 4.6% 21.7% 12.5% 7.5% 4.3% 17.2% 26.0% 12.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##