* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/21/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 56 66 77 83 88 91 93 89 91 87 83 75 67 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 56 66 77 83 88 91 93 89 91 87 83 75 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 55 64 72 78 81 80 77 73 70 62 52 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 11 14 13 14 18 17 18 16 12 14 10 10 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 2 4 3 4 5 3 0 0 2 7 8 14 10 SHEAR DIR 53 52 39 30 34 52 66 84 78 72 64 66 48 64 69 46 358 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.6 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.0 28.4 28.4 27.6 27.1 27.0 25.0 24.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 156 160 165 163 164 156 150 150 141 135 133 112 102 88 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 76 75 76 77 73 71 68 67 61 60 53 46 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 13 15 20 21 24 27 30 30 34 34 35 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 49 45 40 44 47 48 51 66 80 87 84 71 86 91 84 90 78 200 MB DIV 104 95 76 61 32 59 76 101 66 58 46 39 49 8 -1 4 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 0 -4 -4 -6 -3 -5 -2 0 LAND (KM) 233 215 190 211 232 298 383 502 682 792 931 1089 1205 1304 1350 1315 1204 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 47 46 46 45 41 35 27 23 20 15 10 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 31. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 24. 26. 24. 22. 18. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 21. 31. 42. 48. 53. 56. 58. 54. 56. 52. 48. 40. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 99.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/21/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.42 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 26.8% 19.6% 15.7% 12.2% 23.4% 22.0% 22.9% Logistic: 7.4% 35.0% 15.8% 9.5% 3.5% 22.4% 27.7% 13.4% Bayesian: 3.2% 43.5% 21.3% 8.0% 2.7% 12.0% 15.5% 7.1% Consensus: 7.8% 35.1% 18.9% 11.1% 6.1% 19.3% 21.8% 14.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 23.0% 14.0% 6.0% 4.0% 13.0% 22.0% 10.0% SDCON: 5.9% 29.0% 16.4% 8.5% 5.0% 16.1% 21.9% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/21/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##