* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 56 69 78 87 92 97 94 91 88 84 76 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 56 69 78 87 92 97 94 91 88 84 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 50 56 61 64 64 60 55 48 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 12 13 14 15 13 18 19 17 15 18 19 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 7 3 4 0 3 4 1 12 14 6 SHEAR DIR 56 44 49 42 26 39 56 100 72 77 52 62 37 41 44 51 28 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.3 27.4 25.7 24.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 160 156 163 162 162 157 154 150 144 137 139 120 109 101 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 76 76 76 79 75 75 72 71 68 67 62 58 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 12 13 17 21 22 27 31 35 35 36 36 36 30 850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 37 36 42 44 37 57 60 71 75 61 45 64 71 69 55 200 MB DIV 92 89 76 63 55 49 67 110 94 65 65 47 12 40 22 7 3 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 2 1 -5 -8 -7 -8 -8 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 307 290 266 258 264 331 404 507 660 854 927 1050 1153 1290 1422 1459 1413 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 11 11 12 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 43 45 45 46 47 43 39 32 28 27 21 15 11 7 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 19. 26. 29. 33. 29. 28. 25. 22. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 26. 39. 48. 57. 62. 67. 64. 61. 58. 54. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 99.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 18.3% 15.5% 12.5% 0.0% 19.2% 17.9% 17.3% Logistic: 0.5% 6.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.8% 6.7% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 6.8% Consensus: 2.9% 8.3% 5.9% 4.5% 0.1% 7.3% 8.7% 10.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7.0% 14.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.9% 8.6% 5.4% 3.2% 0.5% 7.1% 11.3% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/21/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##