* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/21/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 64 75 81 87 90 92 91 90 87 83 77 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 64 75 81 87 90 92 91 90 87 83 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 51 57 63 68 71 71 70 66 60 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 16 14 12 12 14 11 12 16 19 20 17 15 12 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 2 8 6 0 0 0 0 3 13 12 SHEAR DIR 50 46 45 53 43 30 55 101 94 79 66 61 66 53 55 28 12 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.3 28.2 27.6 27.3 26.8 27.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 161 159 161 162 161 161 154 148 146 140 137 131 134 111 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 77 76 74 77 76 73 72 70 69 66 66 65 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 10 11 13 15 19 20 24 27 31 33 35 36 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 37 41 37 46 48 56 67 63 64 64 29 24 21 7 12 200 MB DIV 99 100 85 84 69 41 51 100 101 74 92 58 29 20 31 9 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 2 1 4 0 -4 -7 -7 -7 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 303 261 228 223 212 255 313 422 506 690 803 893 958 1066 1198 1268 1228 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 10 9 8 9 10 11 11 12 10 9 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 46 47 46 47 44 40 33 27 24 21 17 12 10 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 16. 21. 24. 27. 27. 26. 25. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 34. 45. 51. 57. 60. 62. 61. 60. 57. 53. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 98.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/21/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 24.1% 18.2% 14.4% 0.0% 22.0% 20.0% 29.7% Logistic: 0.8% 10.7% 3.7% 2.1% 0.7% 7.3% 21.5% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 2.9% 14.2% Consensus: 3.6% 12.9% 7.8% 5.6% 0.2% 10.3% 14.8% 19.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 19.0% 4.0% SDCON: 2.3% 9.9% 5.9% 3.3% 0.6% 8.1% 16.9% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/21/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##