* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/21/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 51 60 70 80 83 87 88 88 87 86 82 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 51 60 70 80 83 87 88 88 87 86 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 40 46 52 58 64 67 68 67 64 61 58 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 16 14 11 18 14 14 21 21 20 22 24 20 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 4 5 5 4 5 2 -3 -3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 48 50 41 38 43 33 57 72 71 88 77 68 74 56 61 49 50 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.1 28.8 28.2 28.3 27.5 26.9 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 160 161 160 162 161 163 156 153 147 148 139 132 136 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 5 8 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 75 77 78 78 77 75 73 71 72 72 70 68 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 11 14 17 21 22 26 28 31 32 35 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 33 44 42 51 51 53 67 64 79 79 61 28 29 13 10 200 MB DIV 118 92 94 85 92 89 51 72 114 109 82 43 25 19 28 10 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 6 1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 298 287 287 263 219 237 337 383 510 647 786 846 976 1100 1182 1259 1295 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 41 45 47 46 45 41 37 30 26 23 21 16 11 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 23. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 30. 40. 50. 53. 57. 58. 58. 57. 56. 52. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 98.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/21/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.37 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 21.3% 17.1% 13.7% 0.0% 21.5% 19.7% 22.3% Logistic: 1.4% 13.7% 4.6% 2.6% 1.1% 13.2% 26.9% 17.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 14.4% 8.0% 2.8% 0.6% 5.3% 6.6% 18.9% Consensus: 3.8% 16.5% 9.9% 6.4% 0.6% 13.3% 17.7% 19.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 9.0% 5.0% SDCON: 2.4% 11.7% 6.9% 3.7% 0.8% 8.6% 13.3% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/21/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##