* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/20/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 61 72 83 90 97 96 99 92 91 87 84 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 61 53 44 51 58 57 59 53 52 48 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 45 38 45 51 54 54 54 54 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 15 15 14 8 9 9 14 16 14 12 15 20 24 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 5 5 9 3 3 1 0 2 5 4 4 10 SHEAR DIR 49 39 43 41 40 44 17 57 76 84 63 51 56 54 48 48 61 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.0 28.5 26.7 27.3 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 157 157 158 162 164 168 168 154 135 140 143 138 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 8 7 9 8 11 9 7 3 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 77 75 76 75 76 71 70 65 64 61 59 53 54 61 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 12 16 20 24 27 32 32 37 34 38 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 33 39 47 46 49 71 79 100 104 88 107 120 96 64 23 200 MB DIV 112 120 96 84 79 63 60 55 84 85 55 21 24 -17 29 9 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 5 4 -2 -6 -4 -8 -9 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 297 273 231 188 144 70 32 -6 -11 96 393 667 1081 1463 1608 1488 1200 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.0 19.4 19.0 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.6 97.8 97.9 98.0 98.0 98.2 98.8 100.2 102.4 105.8 110.2 114.9 119.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 10 14 19 22 22 20 13 3 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 41 45 49 53 49 45 44 41 19 12 12 22 24 24 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 29. 27. 30. 24. 26. 23. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 31. 42. 53. 60. 67. 66. 69. 62. 61. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 97.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.37 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 24.0% 18.2% 14.4% 0.0% 22.3% 20.9% 34.0% Logistic: 3.2% 27.9% 10.6% 6.9% 2.7% 20.3% 23.6% 15.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 22.3% 14.8% 5.5% 0.9% 17.6% 20.1% 8.3% Consensus: 4.8% 24.7% 14.5% 8.9% 1.2% 20.1% 21.6% 19.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.9% 16.3% 9.2% 5.4% 1.1% 11.5% 13.8% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##