* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/20/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 41 51 64 73 82 88 89 90 88 86 84 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 41 51 64 73 82 88 89 90 88 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 45 50 52 54 55 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 19 18 15 15 11 12 11 13 15 16 14 15 23 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 1 1 2 6 7 5 7 6 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 52 46 47 47 49 26 39 56 88 84 63 52 43 48 57 39 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.2 27.7 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 157 156 158 160 161 163 157 150 144 141 143 138 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 6 10 7 11 7 5 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 76 75 75 75 71 70 68 68 65 61 59 62 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 11 11 13 17 20 24 27 30 32 33 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 35 36 41 49 51 48 59 77 76 93 93 88 91 82 54 200 MB DIV 90 89 102 89 72 75 59 48 66 99 97 58 34 28 29 35 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 4 9 4 -2 -4 -9 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 314 294 265 233 192 124 90 79 89 132 309 588 852 1207 1491 1601 1490 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.7 17.8 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.8 98.0 98.1 98.2 98.3 98.8 99.8 101.4 103.7 107.3 111.4 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 7 10 14 19 20 19 16 9 2 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 39 42 46 52 53 49 45 44 33 21 17 19 23 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 39. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 20. 22. 22. 23. 21. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 16. 26. 39. 48. 57. 63. 65. 65. 63. 61. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 97.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 2.7% 11.0% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 1.1% Consensus: 0.2% 8.4% 5.3% 0.3% 0.1% 7.0% 10.0% 4.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.1% 5.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##