* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/20/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 44 55 62 70 75 82 84 84 84 82 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 44 55 62 70 75 82 84 84 84 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 30 32 36 41 46 52 57 58 57 55 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 22 19 17 13 10 13 16 16 18 13 8 13 19 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 1 2 0 2 3 4 1 4 2 1 -2 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 47 52 48 48 49 35 28 22 59 86 100 99 54 10 17 36 50 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.6 25.6 25.9 26.0 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 157 158 158 156 159 161 162 164 162 155 124 127 128 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 8 7 9 8 10 9 8 2 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 76 76 76 75 72 70 67 64 59 56 49 49 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 17 18 22 25 29 32 35 37 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 25 30 33 52 52 59 67 76 93 87 78 76 119 137 112 200 MB DIV 82 86 79 109 99 90 49 38 35 76 72 38 12 -4 2 1 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 6 0 -3 -7 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 353 340 299 271 231 154 96 31 16 29 124 370 584 947 1408 1814 2002 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.9 98.1 98.3 98.4 98.5 98.9 99.6 100.9 102.9 105.9 110.0 114.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 12 18 22 23 22 22 14 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 36 39 43 50 53 48 45 45 40 20 8 6 8 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 9. 12. 18. 21. 25. 25. 26. 26. 24. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 19. 30. 37. 45. 50. 57. 59. 59. 59. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 97.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.5% 6.7% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.0% 6.7% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 6.7% 8.3% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.5% 5.3% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 4.3% 5.6% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##