* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/20/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 28 29 34 43 53 64 72 79 86 90 92 93 90 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 28 29 34 43 53 53 53 59 66 71 73 73 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 31 34 39 45 51 55 55 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 21 18 17 15 11 10 13 15 14 16 14 10 13 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 5 3 0 2 2 4 4 5 5 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 46 45 47 43 42 47 47 24 44 66 93 97 69 28 8 31 56 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.1 28.4 25.8 26.1 27.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 157 157 158 158 157 161 164 163 165 159 153 126 128 141 144 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 8 6 10 7 11 7 7 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 71 74 75 75 77 77 77 74 71 68 66 63 60 56 51 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 10 11 14 17 21 24 28 31 35 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 18 22 30 39 51 48 57 74 93 90 85 81 98 122 106 200 MB DIV 96 80 83 82 96 70 65 65 39 69 89 81 37 19 2 -1 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 10 0 -5 -4 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 373 346 311 283 255 187 95 31 -7 6 51 197 400 668 1068 1492 1692 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.1 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.9 98.1 98.4 99.3 100.9 103.2 106.6 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 10 14 19 22 23 21 16 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 32 35 38 45 52 50 47 44 45 36 17 8 8 16 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 44. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 25. 27. 26. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 9. 18. 28. 39. 47. 54. 61. 65. 67. 68. 65. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 96.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 9.2% 2.3% 1.3% 0.2% 4.2% 12.4% 17.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% Consensus: 0.3% 9.6% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 7.3% 10.6% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.1% 6.3% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 4.1% 6.8% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/20/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##