* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP972025 09/19/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 20 20 22 31 40 50 57 70 79 85 87 88 87 88 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 20 20 22 31 40 50 57 65 74 80 82 83 82 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 19 21 24 28 34 39 42 44 47 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 22 23 22 16 12 6 11 9 7 9 16 14 13 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 7 6 4 1 0 1 2 6 9 10 4 0 -1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 51 47 47 47 45 51 44 30 16 40 129 87 79 63 39 58 38 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 28.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 158 158 158 159 161 163 164 164 155 146 145 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 6 8 7 9 8 9 8 8 4 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 76 76 78 76 77 72 71 71 69 66 66 64 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 8 8 7 9 10 13 14 20 23 27 29 33 34 38 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 9 17 24 31 41 48 42 52 70 81 76 86 113 114 94 200 MB DIV 134 94 82 73 65 75 61 75 65 79 123 109 101 74 51 72 57 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 4 1 1 -5 -8 -8 -11 LAND (KM) 410 362 331 302 259 199 126 49 6 8 26 98 307 566 904 1220 1313 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.6 96.9 97.1 97.1 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.9 99.0 100.9 103.9 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 8 12 17 20 21 18 10 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 32 35 40 45 49 49 48 45 44 30 17 17 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 36. 40. 43. 46. 49. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 2. 3. 7. 9. 17. 19. 22. 22. 23. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 11. 20. 30. 37. 50. 59. 65. 67. 68. 67. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 96.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 09/19/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 3.0% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 09/19/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##