* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 33 29 27 27 30 31 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 33 29 27 27 30 31 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 31 25 22 20 18 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 37 35 29 27 14 4 18 16 13 6 5 11 12 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 3 1 -4 -6 -7 -4 -3 -7 -5 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 231 233 237 239 253 301 70 88 108 191 178 241 250 305 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 128 130 133 135 135 136 135 134 131 130 127 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -55.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.4 -56.0 -56.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 38 41 42 43 41 42 41 42 42 41 44 49 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -29 -30 -28 -32 -37 -48 -60 -30 -40 -53 -55 -65 -53 -66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 26 14 -1 -9 0 -28 -21 -19 17 -21 6 -26 -5 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -2 2 7 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 291 261 243 234 274 455 652 816 983 1131 1230 1271 1265 1234 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.1 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.9 29.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.8 154.1 155.3 156.6 157.8 160.3 162.6 164.7 166.4 168.0 169.2 169.7 169.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 19 15 13 12 10 7 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -13. -11. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -13. -13. -10. -9. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29. -28. -27. -27. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.2 152.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/09/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##