* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/09/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 54 48 46 44 47 47 43 37 31 26 25 25 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 70 62 54 48 46 44 47 47 43 37 31 26 25 25 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 70 64 59 54 50 44 41 39 38 36 32 28 25 24 24 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 33 36 37 31 27 12 5 22 30 19 14 7 17 22 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 2 6 -1 -5 -4 -4 -9 -1 -5 -5 -4 -4 4 7 SHEAR DIR 222 222 226 226 226 239 246 39 48 69 71 35 359 292 291 309 305 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 125 127 131 132 134 135 135 132 131 129 124 122 119 113 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -55.0 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.6 -56.0 -56.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 35 35 37 39 40 44 45 41 43 43 42 40 43 49 51 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -17 -31 -37 -41 -44 -49 -52 -63 -53 -59 -72 -76 -61 -31 -41 -63 200 MB DIV 54 28 31 19 15 -18 -7 -28 -41 -14 2 -1 5 6 -11 -17 27 700-850 TADV 16 9 7 0 2 7 0 3 -1 0 -3 -1 1 4 3 4 22 LAND (KM) 530 450 397 347 328 310 372 497 699 889 1044 1183 1315 1360 1341 1343 1385 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.0 26.7 27.4 28.2 29.2 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.1 151.4 152.7 153.9 155.1 157.8 160.3 162.3 164.7 166.6 167.9 168.8 169.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 13 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 7 8 12 13 15 16 14 12 11 9 7 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -28. -32. -35. -38. -38. -38. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -3. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. -0. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -24. -26. -23. -23. -27. -33. -39. -44. -45. -45. -45. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.4 150.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/09/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 618.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/09/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##