* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 58 52 48 45 47 50 45 41 34 29 27 25 26 24 22 V (KT) LAND 75 67 58 52 48 45 47 50 45 41 34 29 27 25 26 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 75 69 64 58 54 48 44 43 41 40 36 32 28 26 26 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 34 35 34 30 16 7 22 39 28 24 19 7 18 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 5 3 4 4 0 -6 -2 -13 -1 -5 -8 -5 -3 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 227 224 222 227 228 236 223 21 24 51 63 54 36 340 299 316 310 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 26.3 26.6 26.6 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 128 131 131 137 139 142 140 138 136 134 131 127 126 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.9 -56.4 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 34 35 36 38 39 43 45 45 43 43 43 41 43 44 55 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -15 -15 -26 -31 -37 -40 -44 -57 -46 -41 -59 -72 -80 -48 -30 -18 200 MB DIV 23 36 18 23 21 -7 -4 -21 -51 -29 -16 8 5 7 11 -3 4 700-850 TADV 14 14 10 6 0 0 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -4 0 2 9 4 17 LAND (KM) 585 495 431 362 302 287 278 413 601 773 940 1095 1228 1299 1332 1367 1435 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.9 24.0 24.7 25.5 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.5 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.3 150.4 151.5 152.9 154.2 156.7 159.0 161.5 163.4 165.3 167.1 168.3 168.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 7 7 6 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 7 10 13 15 14 15 13 12 9 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. -38. -38. -38. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -7. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -27. -30. -28. -25. -30. -34. -41. -46. -48. -50. -49. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.6 149.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 682.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##