* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/08/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 67 59 53 45 44 44 46 42 37 30 27 25 25 27 29 V (KT) LAND 85 76 67 59 53 45 44 44 46 42 37 30 27 25 25 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 85 78 72 65 59 49 43 39 37 35 33 30 26 23 21 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 26 30 30 33 33 32 20 2 23 33 24 14 11 1 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 5 4 7 2 0 -4 -4 -8 -2 -4 -8 -5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 220 220 225 224 225 225 236 250 77 30 59 64 62 47 308 294 316 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 120 122 127 131 137 140 141 138 136 133 134 131 131 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.3 -54.9 -55.7 -55.9 -55.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -55.5 -56.3 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 37 36 33 35 36 42 45 47 47 47 46 45 44 44 49 56 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 6 850 MB ENV VOR 17 10 -1 -7 -8 -27 -35 -40 -42 -59 -37 -27 -50 -69 -64 -41 -37 200 MB DIV 37 34 21 31 16 30 -7 -22 -13 -38 -35 -15 1 -4 1 7 -32 700-850 TADV 13 15 14 13 13 0 5 -2 2 1 -2 -1 -4 0 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 816 701 595 491 410 317 283 297 467 666 861 1029 1176 1300 1396 1446 1478 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.7 23.0 24.0 24.9 26.0 26.9 27.6 28.3 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.0 148.1 149.2 150.4 151.6 154.1 156.8 159.3 161.6 163.9 166.0 167.6 168.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 6 7 11 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -14. -20. -24. -29. -34. -39. -42. -45. -46. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -9. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -26. -32. -40. -41. -41. -38. -43. -48. -55. -58. -60. -60. -58. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.3 147.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/08/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 777.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/08/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##