* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 72 64 57 47 43 44 48 46 41 35 31 28 26 26 28 V (KT) LAND 90 80 72 64 57 47 43 44 48 46 41 35 31 28 26 26 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 82 75 68 62 52 45 40 37 36 35 33 29 26 23 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 24 27 30 35 33 27 11 8 22 28 23 11 8 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 4 2 3 4 -3 -7 -6 -4 -3 -4 -5 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 217 219 219 224 225 229 235 242 229 58 46 64 77 65 88 201 292 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.5 27.0 27.1 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 120 121 130 135 136 141 140 136 132 130 131 130 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.9 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -55.6 -56.1 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 35 35 39 42 48 49 47 48 43 42 42 45 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 10 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 15 8 -1 -8 -20 -31 -31 -42 -52 -60 -42 -48 -64 -77 -72 -71 200 MB DIV 24 39 31 31 25 32 6 9 -6 -24 -17 -27 12 -1 21 31 -2 700-850 TADV 11 13 14 14 11 11 1 2 0 6 0 1 0 0 1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 930 818 711 590 482 342 269 265 336 536 735 901 1017 1170 1331 1378 1346 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.3 25.1 26.1 27.2 28.1 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.2 150.4 152.8 155.5 158.1 160.6 162.9 164.6 166.0 167.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 8 6 6 7 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 12 14 15 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -22. -27. -32. -37. -42. -46. -48. -49. -50. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -13. -10. -7. -4. -2. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -26. -33. -43. -47. -46. -42. -44. -49. -55. -59. -62. -64. -64. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.5 146.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 818.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##