* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 76 68 61 50 45 42 43 43 39 36 32 31 31 30 31 V (KT) LAND 95 85 76 68 61 50 45 42 43 43 39 36 32 31 31 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 95 85 77 70 64 54 46 41 37 35 34 33 31 29 27 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 18 22 26 31 36 31 23 9 21 29 25 15 14 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 4 5 1 3 -1 -3 -7 -6 -3 -3 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 237 206 212 218 223 220 232 240 233 162 58 63 77 92 68 103 48 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 26.1 26.5 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 120 120 125 130 137 139 141 140 138 137 135 137 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.2 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 40 39 38 35 37 40 45 50 49 47 43 42 43 46 45 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 14 15 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 17 15 3 -3 -21 -27 -31 -38 -53 -35 -31 -36 -34 -46 -41 200 MB DIV 21 30 46 37 26 17 18 -4 -9 -32 -31 -31 -12 19 6 23 12 700-850 TADV 10 13 15 17 14 12 7 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 1048 928 810 685 568 397 283 269 265 413 589 750 881 1052 1245 1339 1329 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.5 22.6 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.3 26.9 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.0 146.0 147.1 148.3 149.4 151.6 154.1 156.5 159.1 161.5 163.5 165.2 166.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 8 7 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 10 13 14 14 15 14 12 11 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -35. -40. -45. -48. -50. -50. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -11. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -26. -34. -45. -50. -53. -52. -52. -56. -59. -63. -64. -64. -65. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.8 145.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 831.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##