* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 88 80 72 57 47 39 37 36 35 32 30 30 33 36 39 V (KT) LAND 105 97 88 80 72 57 47 39 37 36 35 32 30 30 33 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 105 96 88 80 72 61 51 43 37 34 32 30 30 30 30 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 12 19 22 30 35 38 31 19 3 12 13 11 1 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 6 3 0 6 -5 -1 -7 -7 -4 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 257 224 207 216 222 227 227 238 239 230 240 49 69 87 165 102 176 SST (C) 25.5 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.7 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 123 122 121 119 121 129 132 136 139 141 141 141 139 137 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.9 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 38 38 36 37 40 44 45 43 42 40 40 43 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 14 14 14 13 12 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 18 18 19 20 16 -4 -19 -39 -34 -45 -59 -75 -56 -49 -48 -59 -51 200 MB DIV 11 17 26 51 35 28 38 14 -2 -20 -34 -6 -18 12 10 13 26 700-850 TADV 5 11 11 14 12 11 7 2 3 4 6 1 0 1 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1174 1064 955 830 711 499 365 300 273 278 394 547 689 884 1091 1224 1284 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.8 22.1 23.2 23.9 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.9 145.8 146.9 148.0 150.2 152.5 154.7 156.8 159.0 161.3 163.4 165.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 11 10 9 9 10 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 10 12 14 15 18 18 16 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -25. -32. -38. -44. -49. -54. -56. -58. -58. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -13. -13. -11. -8. -5. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -25. -33. -48. -58. -66. -68. -69. -70. -73. -75. -75. -72. -69. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.3 143.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 873.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##