* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 105 97 88 69 53 43 37 34 34 30 27 25 26 29 30 V (KT) LAND 115 111 105 97 88 69 53 43 37 34 34 30 27 25 26 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 101 92 84 70 57 47 39 35 32 31 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 12 19 28 34 41 39 34 9 11 17 16 15 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 2 4 4 0 1 0 0 -6 -7 -4 -5 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 3 264 230 212 218 225 228 230 239 238 240 34 71 114 163 137 148 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.6 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 124 123 121 120 124 130 135 135 140 141 141 140 141 141 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 44 44 42 40 38 36 35 37 41 43 43 47 47 47 45 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 17 17 16 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 16 17 20 13 3 -18 -32 -34 -35 -31 -37 -48 -62 -59 -51 200 MB DIV 8 10 23 28 35 24 29 19 13 -19 -1 -25 -33 -13 12 -10 -32 700-850 TADV 0 4 8 8 11 15 13 2 2 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1291 1182 1074 945 820 589 418 328 284 275 326 463 637 859 1112 1333 1535 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.3 18.9 20.2 21.4 22.7 23.6 24.4 25.1 25.6 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.9 143.9 144.8 145.9 147.0 149.2 151.3 153.6 155.9 158.1 160.2 162.4 164.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 12 13 15 17 18 17 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -22. -31. -39. -46. -52. -58. -63. -65. -67. -67. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -13. -14. -13. -11. -8. -6. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -18. -27. -46. -62. -72. -78. -81. -81. -85. -88. -90. -89. -86. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.8 142.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 954.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##