* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/07/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 108 103 94 79 66 56 50 48 47 45 42 40 40 39 40 V (KT) LAND 115 112 108 103 94 79 66 56 50 48 47 45 42 40 40 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 94 87 74 62 52 43 37 34 32 31 31 30 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 4 11 19 29 38 38 35 25 6 11 12 14 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 3 7 1 4 4 -4 -5 -6 -4 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 14 358 290 214 198 221 227 230 235 234 234 222 100 121 134 139 131 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.7 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.7 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 121 124 123 119 121 128 131 137 140 142 143 141 138 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.6 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 41 39 38 34 34 36 42 43 45 50 48 46 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 19 16 15 15 13 12 11 12 10 9 8 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 15 19 20 21 0 -14 -29 -38 -42 -31 -11 -32 -49 -65 -61 200 MB DIV 18 10 12 23 24 33 35 37 23 9 -7 -31 -15 -25 24 -5 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 6 8 12 13 10 -1 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1409 1299 1190 1067 946 712 506 359 284 273 275 400 570 782 1011 1247 1488 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.3 20.7 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.3 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.9 142.9 143.8 144.9 145.9 148.0 150.1 152.4 154.5 156.8 159.3 161.7 164.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 10 13 15 17 20 17 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -22. -30. -38. -45. -51. -57. -62. -64. -65. -66. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -12. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -21. -36. -49. -59. -65. -67. -68. -70. -73. -75. -75. -76. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 141.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 897.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/07/25 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 96 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##