* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 96 90 86 76 65 55 49 44 43 41 40 38 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 110 102 96 90 86 76 65 55 49 44 43 41 40 38 38 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 110 102 95 88 83 73 64 54 44 38 33 31 29 29 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 2 2 7 18 24 33 41 40 35 10 5 14 16 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 -1 1 4 3 1 2 0 0 -7 -6 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 43 54 123 163 194 214 222 227 231 238 230 218 108 76 100 141 134 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 120 119 123 122 121 123 131 135 136 142 142 141 138 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -54.9 -55.2 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 45 44 43 41 37 36 38 42 46 47 54 53 48 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 18 19 18 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 15 15 21 21 15 0 -22 -35 -35 -34 -22 -47 -50 -57 -61 200 MB DIV 2 18 20 15 27 41 30 32 30 14 -1 -12 -7 -53 -18 19 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 5 8 13 14 16 9 6 0 1 0 1 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1524 1419 1315 1198 1082 854 628 450 360 315 305 368 523 748 964 1151 1292 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.3 22.7 23.8 24.7 25.4 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.8 142.7 143.7 144.7 146.7 148.8 150.9 153.2 155.6 158.1 160.6 163.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 8 11 13 14 17 15 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -26. -34. -40. -46. -52. -56. -58. -60. -61. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -20. -24. -34. -45. -55. -61. -66. -67. -69. -70. -72. -72. -71. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.9 140.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 801.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##