* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 103 99 93 84 73 61 54 47 44 41 40 40 40 43 46 V (KT) LAND 115 110 103 99 93 84 73 61 54 47 44 41 40 40 40 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 102 95 90 81 71 61 50 41 36 32 30 29 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 3 2 10 19 25 37 35 34 27 13 11 8 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 3 6 1 4 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 40 27 51 90 143 198 218 222 227 228 215 203 162 105 103 165 173 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.1 25.5 25.6 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 126 122 123 125 119 120 128 131 136 140 142 142 142 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 45 45 42 39 36 35 38 42 46 47 48 49 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 20 18 17 17 15 14 12 12 10 9 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 3 11 19 19 24 20 4 -9 -21 -25 -32 -33 -26 -36 -46 -45 200 MB DIV -24 16 22 13 13 30 34 29 32 40 5 -3 -18 -15 7 23 5 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 2 3 7 11 16 14 10 8 5 8 4 6 5 4 LAND (KM) 1627 1519 1412 1299 1186 950 724 497 360 263 220 231 443 652 860 1111 1365 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.8 22.8 23.5 24.3 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.1 141.0 141.9 142.9 143.9 145.9 147.9 150.1 152.3 154.7 157.1 159.6 162.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 8 7 7 7 5 6 7 10 13 15 17 19 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -27. -35. -42. -49. -54. -59. -61. -63. -63. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -12. -14. -13. -13. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -16. -22. -31. -42. -54. -61. -68. -71. -74. -75. -75. -75. -72. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.3 140.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 804.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##