* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/06/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 116 110 106 96 83 68 57 51 45 41 40 39 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 120 120 116 110 106 96 83 68 57 51 45 41 40 39 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 113 105 98 87 77 66 55 45 37 33 30 29 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 5 1 6 13 23 34 38 37 33 25 15 16 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 0 -2 3 6 3 1 5 0 -5 -2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 27 7 33 69 203 212 222 225 232 228 216 190 145 113 122 158 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 127 125 126 123 121 122 129 135 138 140 142 144 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 50 46 45 41 35 36 35 40 47 49 51 51 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 18 20 19 18 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -3 5 17 28 36 18 2 -9 -21 -29 -26 -21 -34 -40 -48 200 MB DIV 4 -21 10 19 23 25 45 25 12 35 14 -20 -2 -4 -3 -12 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 2 6 11 15 21 9 8 4 5 3 8 7 5 LAND (KM) 1729 1622 1514 1404 1294 1064 830 585 373 245 204 193 309 503 720 956 1214 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.2 18.3 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.9 23.8 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.2 140.2 141.1 142.0 143.0 145.0 147.0 149.2 151.4 153.7 156.1 158.6 161.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 12 14 17 20 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -28. -37. -45. -52. -57. -62. -64. -66. -67. -68. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -4. -10. -14. -24. -37. -52. -63. -69. -75. -79. -80. -81. -81. -79. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.0 139.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 758.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##