* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 113 108 103 94 83 74 64 57 50 47 46 44 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 115 115 113 108 103 94 83 74 64 57 50 47 46 44 45 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 109 103 97 86 78 70 60 50 42 36 33 31 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 4 3 3 8 14 22 33 29 31 24 15 8 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -1 -1 0 4 9 5 7 0 -2 -2 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 44 43 48 20 32 270 221 220 224 230 223 202 188 189 152 137 158 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.9 26.2 25.6 25.6 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 130 130 127 123 126 120 120 126 130 135 140 141 143 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -54.3 -54.6 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 52 50 47 42 41 38 36 37 40 46 49 46 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 20 19 18 17 16 17 15 14 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -3 3 12 22 27 24 7 -6 -21 -28 -36 -33 -31 -25 -37 200 MB DIV 21 0 -15 2 9 17 24 24 35 34 22 14 6 -10 -14 -6 31 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 1 3 7 9 20 11 9 13 7 9 6 10 8 LAND (KM) 1841 1737 1633 1519 1405 1175 942 716 485 324 224 204 231 375 571 805 1040 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.9 17.9 18.9 20.2 21.4 22.3 23.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.1 140.0 141.0 142.0 144.0 146.0 148.0 150.2 152.4 154.6 157.0 159.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 13 11 9 7 7 7 6 7 7 10 13 15 19 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -24. -32. -40. -46. -52. -57. -59. -61. -62. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -7. -12. -21. -32. -41. -51. -58. -65. -68. -69. -71. -70. -70. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.7 138.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 668.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/06/25 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 76 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##