* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 97 93 90 85 81 76 70 63 56 52 51 49 49 51 49 V (KT) LAND 105 100 97 93 90 85 81 76 70 63 56 52 51 49 49 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 96 92 87 80 75 70 62 53 44 38 33 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 7 8 4 3 10 19 28 36 30 35 28 18 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 0 -1 0 4 4 6 3 8 -2 1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 40 41 49 47 35 2 284 212 234 232 235 216 204 190 182 133 97 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 136 134 134 128 125 122 121 122 128 134 136 137 140 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -54.5 -55.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 52 49 48 43 39 37 35 37 42 45 48 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 17 16 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -5 -7 -1 20 26 29 19 10 -9 -14 -20 -25 -19 -21 -17 200 MB DIV 12 6 -12 -16 -1 26 28 35 18 24 16 28 -5 -14 17 9 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -1 0 2 4 6 15 17 10 9 7 7 3 5 5 LAND (KM) 1948 1851 1754 1648 1542 1318 1087 837 580 348 221 152 109 180 407 658 912 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.8 18.0 18.9 20.0 21.3 22.3 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.2 139.1 140.0 140.9 142.9 144.9 147.0 149.3 151.5 153.6 155.9 158.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 14 12 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 12 15 18 21 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -16. -23. -29. -34. -39. -43. -46. -48. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -12. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -29. -35. -42. -49. -53. -54. -56. -56. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.3 137.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 -0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 12.5% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##