* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 89 85 83 80 78 76 71 63 60 54 54 53 53 53 51 V (KT) LAND 100 93 89 85 83 80 78 76 71 63 60 54 54 53 53 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 100 93 88 84 81 76 72 68 62 56 49 42 37 34 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 9 8 6 4 6 14 21 31 27 28 27 24 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 3 2 -2 -2 -1 2 5 3 9 4 -1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 41 31 38 43 42 12 317 219 238 233 243 230 207 194 192 164 112 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 26.1 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 136 136 130 126 124 122 121 125 131 134 138 139 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 52 52 51 47 46 41 35 34 32 36 42 46 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 20 21 20 20 18 16 17 13 13 13 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 -1 4 3 11 26 33 30 9 4 -8 -15 -11 -20 -24 -35 200 MB DIV 10 12 7 -23 -25 9 22 29 35 21 41 24 15 39 10 -34 7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 2 4 9 15 14 6 9 2 7 5 8 LAND (KM) 2020 1921 1823 1715 1608 1393 1162 932 688 441 230 116 63 58 323 602 883 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.0 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.7 137.6 138.5 139.5 140.4 142.3 144.3 146.3 148.4 150.6 152.7 154.9 157.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 13 14 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 15 14 11 8 9 9 7 9 10 11 15 17 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -37. -39. -41. -43. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -7. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -29. -37. -40. -46. -46. -47. -47. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.0 136.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 -1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.94 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 8.0% 7.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##