* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 102 98 94 90 87 85 79 71 63 56 55 52 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 110 106 102 98 94 90 87 85 79 71 63 56 55 52 51 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 102 97 93 86 80 76 70 62 53 44 38 34 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 10 9 7 2 3 11 18 26 30 25 29 24 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 2 3 5 7 10 2 5 1 2 SHEAR DIR 64 49 47 48 59 31 45 268 239 240 240 242 222 211 193 188 208 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.4 26.3 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 138 136 135 133 128 127 121 121 122 130 131 136 137 138 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 52 51 48 46 45 41 35 32 31 31 39 44 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 19 20 19 19 18 16 14 11 10 8 7 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 18 7 2 0 9 9 35 34 41 30 16 0 0 -10 -15 -25 -43 200 MB DIV -1 -8 5 1 -21 -14 17 12 17 3 25 22 16 6 15 3 -34 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 1 4 6 12 14 4 10 3 6 6 7 LAND (KM) 2119 2023 1928 1817 1706 1498 1280 1043 819 582 355 151 62 71 152 353 550 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.4 20.3 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.7 137.5 138.5 139.5 141.3 143.2 145.3 147.2 149.3 151.4 153.6 155.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 16 15 12 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 15 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -24. -31. -37. -42. -46. -49. -51. -53. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -11. -12. -12. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -31. -39. -47. -54. -55. -58. -59. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.8 135.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 634.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##