* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/05/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 106 102 94 88 85 82 75 67 60 56 54 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 106 102 94 88 85 82 75 67 60 56 54 50 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 109 104 99 89 81 75 70 64 57 49 42 36 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 10 8 6 5 3 7 11 21 27 30 27 24 22 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 1 3 2 -1 -2 -2 4 6 9 10 9 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 68 69 48 46 37 19 357 289 226 234 241 242 225 222 217 219 195 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.6 26.0 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 137 136 132 126 125 124 120 120 125 131 132 134 136 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 51 51 48 47 42 39 37 33 33 32 35 36 42 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 21 20 19 19 20 18 16 14 12 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 7 2 1 16 29 34 39 41 33 19 8 3 -19 -20 -25 200 MB DIV -5 -18 -16 8 4 -30 10 19 37 31 4 15 20 38 32 24 11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 4 9 13 8 10 9 6 8 3 LAND (KM) 2197 2103 2009 1910 1811 1593 1378 1155 930 724 495 241 72 63 109 174 405 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 135.9 136.7 137.6 138.5 140.4 142.3 144.3 146.2 148.0 150.1 152.5 155.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 12 9 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 18 16 12 9 8 8 8 7 9 10 11 12 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. -35. -41. -46. -51. -53. -56. -58. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -2. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -27. -30. -33. -40. -48. -55. -59. -61. -65. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.9 135.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 658.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/05/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##