* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 103 99 97 90 86 85 81 77 71 65 59 56 55 54 53 V (KT) LAND 115 108 103 99 97 90 86 85 81 77 71 65 59 56 55 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 105 101 96 88 80 75 72 68 62 54 45 39 36 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 11 9 9 10 3 6 10 16 24 28 27 24 23 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 3 0 -2 -4 0 3 7 11 8 8 2 0 SHEAR DIR 56 67 73 51 41 34 11 322 279 231 239 242 234 232 239 248 327 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.3 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 139 136 134 131 126 127 121 121 123 132 133 137 136 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 52 50 49 48 44 41 39 34 31 31 33 39 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 21 22 21 21 20 19 19 18 16 12 10 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 10 7 2 12 21 33 36 42 34 25 13 -2 -11 -23 -16 200 MB DIV -15 -9 -23 -3 16 -22 -23 7 18 26 -7 23 20 6 13 -26 -20 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 3 7 13 12 6 5 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 2282 2190 2098 2004 1910 1719 1501 1287 1047 819 584 323 109 30 74 165 386 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.2 135.0 135.9 136.8 137.6 139.3 141.2 143.1 145.2 147.2 149.3 151.7 154.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 13 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 19 18 14 10 8 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -12. -19. -27. -34. -40. -45. -50. -52. -54. -57. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -5. -2. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -10. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -18. -25. -29. -30. -34. -38. -44. -50. -56. -59. -60. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.8 134.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 672.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##