* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/04/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 102 97 94 87 85 83 78 74 69 64 60 56 55 55 52 V (KT) LAND 115 108 102 97 94 87 85 83 78 74 69 64 60 56 54 54 51 V (KT) LGEM 115 108 103 98 94 87 82 77 72 67 61 55 47 40 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 14 10 9 8 4 4 4 12 14 19 22 24 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 2 8 9 8 7 3 4 SHEAR DIR 83 58 67 62 40 26 15 350 275 211 247 234 237 236 244 256 261 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.3 25.7 25.7 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 139 139 135 130 127 125 127 121 121 125 132 136 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 53 54 52 55 52 50 49 47 43 40 34 31 29 32 40 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 21 21 21 20 21 21 20 19 18 16 13 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 11 8 9 5 18 26 31 38 36 33 18 -2 -3 -17 -13 200 MB DIV -21 -34 -25 -26 -10 11 -39 0 5 19 20 0 22 7 11 0 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 3 5 10 12 6 7 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 2374 2285 2197 2110 2023 1841 1637 1429 1216 976 721 468 219 36 8 22 250 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.2 135.0 135.8 136.6 138.2 140.0 141.8 143.7 145.8 148.1 150.4 152.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 19 20 16 13 9 7 7 8 8 9 11 15 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -26. -33. -39. -44. -49. -51. -54. -56. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -6. -2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -21. -28. -30. -32. -37. -41. -46. -51. -55. -59. -60. -60. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.8 133.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 628.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##