* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/04/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 120 113 107 98 89 82 77 73 70 63 59 54 50 49 47 V (KT) LAND 125 125 120 113 107 98 89 82 77 73 70 63 59 54 45 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 125 123 118 111 106 98 90 81 76 73 68 62 55 47 37 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 15 13 9 9 9 4 6 6 12 14 16 17 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 -1 2 0 0 -3 -3 1 2 6 8 7 6 0 SHEAR DIR 78 73 64 77 66 31 29 8 334 275 244 242 234 241 232 252 268 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.0 26.1 25.8 25.7 26.4 26.9 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 137 139 137 134 131 126 124 125 122 121 128 133 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 55 54 53 53 52 51 50 46 45 41 36 32 31 31 33 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 22 20 20 20 19 20 18 16 13 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 18 10 11 13 21 23 36 33 41 35 32 11 -4 -8 -25 200 MB DIV -29 -30 -35 -21 -17 8 -2 -19 1 1 17 -6 16 -4 0 -2 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 2 3 6 8 10 8 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 2401 2367 2289 2200 2112 1944 1773 1582 1395 1179 932 677 403 145 -6 53 38 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.4 134.1 135.0 135.8 137.3 138.8 140.5 142.1 144.0 146.2 148.5 151.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 19 20 19 15 12 8 7 8 9 8 10 14 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -17. -25. -33. -41. -48. -53. -58. -61. -63. -65. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -11. -8. -4. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -5. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -5. -12. -18. -27. -36. -43. -48. -52. -55. -62. -66. -71. -75. -76. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.8 132.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 688.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##