* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/04/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 130 127 119 112 100 90 82 78 75 70 64 57 51 48 46 47 V (KT) LAND 125 130 127 119 112 100 90 82 78 75 70 64 57 51 48 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 125 129 124 117 110 100 91 84 77 73 69 64 56 48 41 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 15 15 10 8 6 3 6 8 14 22 27 21 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 0 1 4 1 -1 -3 -2 2 3 5 4 8 1 SHEAR DIR 78 80 71 74 74 45 25 12 12 287 247 245 239 247 238 249 272 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.2 26.5 26.1 26.2 25.7 25.7 26.1 26.7 26.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 136 138 139 136 136 129 124 125 121 121 124 130 132 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 55 56 55 54 53 49 42 40 37 34 33 31 34 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 17 14 13 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 20 17 12 15 12 22 36 39 45 53 44 32 10 5 -4 200 MB DIV -17 -32 -39 -35 -22 0 15 -13 23 10 17 10 14 23 5 0 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 3 6 8 11 10 11 5 4 LAND (KM) 2347 2409 2354 2270 2187 1992 1819 1608 1375 1155 959 721 435 229 88 1 61 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.7 133.5 134.3 135.1 136.9 138.5 140.4 142.4 144.3 146.0 148.1 150.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 12 12 9 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 19 20 20 16 14 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -24. -32. -39. -45. -51. -56. -59. -62. -65. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -12. -8. -5. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 10. 5. -0. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 2. -6. -13. -25. -35. -43. -47. -50. -55. -61. -68. -74. -77. -79. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.8 131.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 646.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/04/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##