* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/03/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 112 109 103 93 89 85 82 77 74 70 66 60 55 53 52 V (KT) LAND 110 113 112 109 103 93 89 85 82 77 74 70 66 60 55 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 110 113 112 107 101 94 89 82 75 70 66 63 57 50 42 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 13 15 13 9 8 9 6 8 12 23 24 19 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 0 0 3 1 0 -3 -3 1 2 5 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 83 73 76 66 69 60 21 26 357 295 279 230 241 239 241 244 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 136 136 140 135 133 131 125 125 123 120 120 125 131 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 54 53 52 51 50 49 44 42 42 38 37 33 31 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 20 19 18 21 20 21 18 18 19 18 15 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 17 21 16 11 12 19 21 35 36 45 43 34 11 -1 -7 200 MB DIV -1 -20 -29 -31 -10 6 27 4 -11 15 15 15 0 23 -6 4 19 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 2 3 6 11 12 13 10 8 3 LAND (KM) 2285 2343 2402 2328 2251 2063 1848 1658 1454 1263 1071 855 611 398 209 41 7 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.0 132.9 133.7 134.4 136.1 138.1 139.9 141.7 143.3 144.9 146.8 149.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 18 19 18 16 13 10 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -33. -37. -41. -44. -47. -50. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -7. -17. -21. -25. -28. -33. -36. -40. -44. -50. -55. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.9 131.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/03/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 23.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.3% 7.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/03/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##