* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 89 87 82 76 78 75 75 73 72 70 67 62 59 55 V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 89 87 82 76 78 75 75 73 72 70 67 62 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 92 90 87 82 79 77 74 70 68 66 64 61 56 50 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 12 12 14 15 12 6 10 6 1 7 14 16 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 1 -3 -3 0 0 0 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 74 81 90 75 72 72 76 51 13 6 16 35 222 255 251 256 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.7 26.3 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 138 136 140 136 133 128 122 120 127 120 120 123 127 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 56 54 56 55 53 52 49 47 42 38 35 37 39 39 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 18 18 18 16 20 18 20 19 20 20 19 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 20 18 20 13 12 22 32 38 50 50 62 54 45 17 10 200 MB DIV -2 -20 -10 -17 -22 -10 -1 -1 -18 5 8 4 15 12 13 1 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 5 7 6 14 10 LAND (KM) 2184 2234 2285 2343 2401 2275 2084 1896 1729 1562 1382 1190 974 747 508 294 104 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.5 131.1 131.8 132.6 134.2 136.0 137.7 139.2 140.6 142.1 143.8 145.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 20 20 19 19 17 14 10 7 6 7 8 8 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. 1. -0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -12. -15. -15. -17. -18. -20. -23. -28. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.8 129.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.17 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 17.0% 14.9% 12.3% 9.8% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 3.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 31.0% 13.0% 9.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.0% 19.1% 9.3% 6.6% 7.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##