* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/02/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 82 81 79 76 73 72 74 74 69 70 65 62 61 59 V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 82 81 79 76 73 72 74 74 69 70 65 62 61 59 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 86 86 85 82 78 74 72 68 66 62 59 57 54 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 13 11 12 7 13 15 11 6 5 3 3 6 12 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 55 68 76 85 83 65 38 44 28 42 332 323 293 236 250 250 252 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.1 26.2 26.1 25.7 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 140 140 135 137 139 134 125 124 120 121 123 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 56 57 58 54 54 51 48 45 41 40 39 36 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 21 19 21 19 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 19 22 23 29 16 16 25 34 37 43 41 43 33 32 25 200 MB DIV 10 8 -6 -25 -3 -10 0 29 35 15 10 -1 3 18 8 0 16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 3 5 9 5 6 LAND (KM) 2094 2135 2176 2218 2261 2347 2357 2217 2049 1882 1708 1528 1335 1139 925 710 501 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.2 129.7 130.3 130.8 131.9 133.4 134.7 136.2 137.7 139.2 140.8 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 18 18 16 12 8 6 6 7 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -6. -6. -11. -10. -14. -18. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.8 128.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.25 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 19.2% 17.3% 14.7% 11.6% 17.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.5% 3.7% 1.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 9.2% 7.0% 5.4% 4.6% 5.8% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 29.0% 17.0% 8.0% 9.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 17.7% 13.1% 7.5% 7.2% 8.8% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##