* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/02/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 83 84 82 78 75 73 74 74 72 69 65 63 61 58 V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 83 84 82 78 75 73 74 74 72 69 65 63 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 85 87 86 85 81 76 73 70 68 67 63 60 55 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 12 10 11 12 16 15 11 4 5 9 6 10 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -4 -4 0 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 48 59 64 76 63 50 37 41 48 63 34 318 309 280 252 240 251 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.6 26.8 25.9 26.2 25.9 26.4 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 140 140 138 136 138 139 131 122 125 122 128 120 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 57 58 58 56 56 55 51 50 47 49 46 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 19 19 19 20 20 22 22 22 23 21 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 11 19 20 26 28 16 19 20 30 31 35 26 28 18 13 200 MB DIV 29 10 12 2 -14 10 19 42 24 27 13 8 -4 29 8 8 13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 0 1 5 6 12 11 LAND (KM) 2057 2098 2139 2172 2207 2300 2386 2313 2152 1994 1831 1661 1474 1263 1017 778 568 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.6 129.1 129.6 130.1 131.2 132.5 133.8 135.3 136.7 138.1 139.6 141.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 18 18 18 14 10 7 6 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 9. 7. 3. 0. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.8 128.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.8% 24.6% 21.2% 17.8% 13.9% 20.7% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 12.4% 7.0% 3.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.1% 13.1% 9.5% 7.2% 6.3% 7.2% 5.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 50.0% 44.0% 29.0% 27.0% 30.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 33.0% 28.5% 19.2% 17.1% 18.1% 6.6% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##