* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/02/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 75 77 79 77 79 75 76 71 72 67 65 65 61 58 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 75 77 79 77 79 75 76 71 72 67 65 65 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 73 76 77 79 79 77 75 72 69 67 64 62 60 57 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 14 12 15 14 13 10 7 9 10 5 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 1 -1 -6 -3 0 2 6 SHEAR DIR 72 62 65 75 69 53 45 38 59 60 60 347 316 322 270 243 238 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.3 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 140 141 139 136 139 138 135 132 128 126 127 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 55 53 57 57 55 53 52 50 48 43 42 43 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 18 19 18 21 20 23 20 23 22 22 23 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 16 14 17 27 28 23 24 29 32 31 43 43 48 39 35 200 MB DIV 19 40 21 5 2 -5 -5 47 43 34 19 5 2 23 40 6 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 0 1 -1 5 7 9 10 LAND (KM) 2022 2053 2086 2131 2176 2253 2362 2313 2138 1971 1807 1630 1412 1196 974 741 508 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.1 128.6 129.2 129.7 130.8 132.3 133.8 135.4 137.0 138.5 140.1 142.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 9 10 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 18 18 18 15 12 9 8 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 7. 7. 10. 6. 9. 7. 6. 6. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 12. 14. 10. 11. 6. 7. 2. -0. -0. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.8 127.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.9% 33.1% 31.6% 23.8% 16.5% 22.8% 16.9% 8.8% Logistic: 2.9% 9.6% 4.8% 2.2% 5.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 14.6% 12.2% 8.7% 7.3% 7.8% 5.8% 3.1% DTOPS: 31.0% 33.0% 23.0% 22.0% 23.0% 25.0% 7.0% 1.0% SDCON: 21.3% 23.8% 17.6% 15.3% 15.1% 16.4% 6.4% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##