* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/02/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 70 74 77 77 78 76 77 76 72 69 66 63 61 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 70 74 77 77 78 76 77 76 72 69 66 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 70 73 74 76 75 74 71 69 67 63 59 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 14 13 11 7 12 15 11 8 4 6 9 6 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 61 71 61 63 66 59 59 24 46 50 30 6 316 306 295 270 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.4 25.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 141 142 140 136 139 138 137 135 131 127 127 121 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 56 55 55 57 58 54 54 53 51 48 43 43 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 21 22 23 22 21 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 9 12 6 11 16 25 20 27 30 37 36 41 38 41 45 200 MB DIV 9 8 26 4 2 -30 4 22 67 44 34 -5 17 17 39 22 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 1 3 3 8 10 13 LAND (KM) 1980 2030 2081 2129 2177 2285 2386 2309 2146 1976 1778 1587 1391 1191 988 779 567 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.6 128.2 128.9 129.5 130.9 132.3 133.9 135.5 137.1 138.9 140.6 142.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 22 21 21 20 19 20 19 15 13 11 9 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 22. 22. 23. 21. 22. 21. 17. 14. 11. 8. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 127.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 39.7% 33.3% 22.7% 14.4% 25.9% 19.7% 10.8% Logistic: 4.1% 12.2% 5.4% 2.4% 4.2% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 18.0% 12.9% 8.4% 6.3% 8.9% 6.8% 4.0% DTOPS: 32.0% 47.0% 37.0% 29.0% 24.0% 33.0% 10.0% 2.0% SDCON: 19.7% 32.5% 24.9% 18.7% 15.1% 20.9% 8.4% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/02/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##