* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/01/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 72 75 80 84 83 82 80 79 79 78 75 71 70 69 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 72 75 80 84 83 82 80 79 79 78 75 71 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 72 76 80 83 83 82 79 75 74 73 70 65 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 15 15 12 12 11 14 11 8 2 8 5 6 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 59 68 70 63 64 64 55 34 25 51 27 349 9 21 329 324 328 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 140 141 142 140 136 139 138 135 137 133 131 129 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 57 56 55 55 58 55 55 54 53 47 43 44 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 17 18 19 20 20 22 21 22 22 23 23 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 10 6 8 7 11 35 34 32 32 44 49 56 37 21 9 200 MB DIV 32 12 -4 11 0 0 -7 20 48 49 40 11 -14 -17 -5 -1 -9 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 1 0 1 3 8 8 9 LAND (KM) 1933 2002 2067 2119 2171 2285 2409 2320 2137 1968 1794 1622 1402 1227 1081 903 683 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.2 128.0 128.6 129.2 130.7 132.3 133.9 135.7 137.3 138.9 140.5 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 22 22 21 21 20 21 20 16 15 13 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 20. 25. 29. 28. 27. 25. 24. 24. 23. 21. 16. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 126.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 8.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -8.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 7.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.1% 48.8% 41.4% 30.7% 18.2% 30.7% 21.0% 10.8% Logistic: 11.6% 20.8% 10.5% 5.4% 8.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 3.7% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 15.8% 24.7% 17.4% 12.1% 8.9% 10.7% 7.2% 4.3% DTOPS: 26.0% 33.0% 25.0% 25.0% 15.0% 32.0% 19.0% 8.0% SDCON: 20.9% 28.8% 21.2% 18.5% 11.9% 21.3% 13.1% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##