* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/01/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 62 70 74 76 75 79 79 78 78 75 72 69 68 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 62 70 74 76 75 79 79 78 78 75 72 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 55 59 65 70 72 73 75 77 77 75 72 68 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 13 14 17 13 11 9 11 8 8 7 8 9 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 -1 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 70 71 71 74 63 56 52 58 35 56 36 44 350 341 328 330 321 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 141 142 140 136 139 138 135 138 134 132 130 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 58 57 55 56 58 56 53 53 51 48 43 40 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 18 19 19 20 22 23 23 24 24 23 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 9 14 9 13 13 28 36 35 48 49 55 53 47 36 30 200 MB DIV 50 32 21 10 20 -9 -20 6 24 52 11 19 -21 2 0 20 -32 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 1 2 3 6 5 LAND (KM) 1878 1946 2006 2069 2132 2254 2378 2334 2129 1953 1769 1591 1391 1217 1047 822 565 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.7 127.5 128.2 128.9 130.4 132.1 133.8 135.7 137.4 139.2 140.9 142.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 19 16 16 13 12 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 25. 29. 31. 30. 34. 34. 33. 33. 30. 27. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 125.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 35.5% 24.9% 17.5% 13.5% 25.3% 24.7% 12.5% Logistic: 15.7% 30.4% 15.8% 8.1% 9.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 4.1% 5.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 23.7% 13.8% 8.6% 7.7% 8.9% 8.4% 4.8% DTOPS: 17.0% 52.0% 36.0% 30.0% 24.0% 23.0% 34.0% 52.0% SDCON: 14.1% 37.8% 24.9% 19.3% 15.8% 15.9% 21.2% 28.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##