* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/01/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 57 65 70 74 73 77 78 79 77 76 73 70 69 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 57 65 70 74 73 77 78 79 77 76 73 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 52 59 66 70 72 75 77 78 78 77 75 72 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 9 9 11 12 12 8 9 13 9 5 6 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 -3 -5 -7 -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -5 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 114 80 69 87 84 59 55 55 51 33 72 73 41 329 294 296 289 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 141 141 141 136 139 139 136 137 135 134 131 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 59 56 55 56 58 54 50 46 46 43 38 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 15 15 17 17 20 21 22 21 23 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 15 16 22 28 23 20 32 41 47 50 52 63 65 54 47 200 MB DIV 62 50 35 35 28 8 -9 -19 23 60 55 28 7 -21 -11 23 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 2 -2 4 3 LAND (KM) 1807 1874 1942 2002 2064 2191 2331 2364 2184 1992 1777 1581 1420 1241 1062 875 681 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.9 126.7 127.5 128.3 129.9 131.6 133.4 135.2 137.1 139.2 141.1 142.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 19 20 20 17 16 15 13 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 12. 13. 14. 11. 12. 10. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 30. 34. 33. 37. 38. 39. 37. 36. 33. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 125.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.85 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 37.4% 29.8% 19.3% 14.2% 28.7% 34.8% 13.9% Logistic: 8.6% 25.3% 16.4% 8.2% 8.8% 2.2% 0.9% 2.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 21.4% 15.5% 9.2% 7.7% 10.3% 11.9% 5.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 28.0% 19.0% 11.0% 9.0% 18.0% 28.0% 70.0% SDCON: 6.9% 24.7% 17.2% 10.1% 8.3% 14.1% 19.9% 37.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##