* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 09/01/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 56 64 70 73 71 74 72 75 75 76 73 71 68 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 53 56 64 70 73 71 74 72 75 75 76 73 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 52 59 66 69 71 72 74 75 76 77 74 71 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 5 11 13 13 15 11 10 9 9 7 4 11 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -4 -3 -5 -8 -8 -7 -3 -5 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 94 100 106 75 88 76 59 49 49 42 58 54 63 285 300 305 293 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 138 139 140 141 137 137 140 135 137 136 135 130 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 59 60 56 53 55 56 55 51 51 48 43 39 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 16 17 18 17 20 19 21 22 24 24 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 22 23 23 35 32 26 31 43 47 54 49 59 61 60 51 200 MB DIV 44 56 50 41 40 33 1 -28 6 27 27 13 9 -9 -14 2 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 6 LAND (KM) 1706 1773 1841 1908 1973 2098 2230 2379 2237 2033 1845 1660 1464 1265 1052 865 684 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.1 125.9 126.7 127.5 129.2 130.9 132.6 134.5 136.5 138.4 140.2 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 19 19 20 19 18 18 19 17 16 15 13 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 10. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 24. 30. 33. 31. 34. 32. 35. 35. 36. 33. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 124.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.58 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.87 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 37.2% 29.5% 19.0% 14.3% 28.8% 47.2% 15.3% Logistic: 10.1% 27.2% 17.5% 8.7% 9.8% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 22.1% 15.8% 9.3% 8.0% 10.3% 16.2% 5.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 25.0% 17.0% 9.0% 6.0% 28.0% 30.0% 75.0% SDCON: 6.7% 23.5% 16.4% 9.1% 7.0% 19.1% 23.1% 40.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 09/01/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##