* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 08/31/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 53 61 68 74 75 74 75 76 78 78 76 75 73 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 53 61 68 74 75 74 75 76 78 78 76 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 54 61 67 70 71 72 75 78 78 76 72 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 3 4 10 10 12 15 12 11 9 9 4 8 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -5 -2 -7 -7 -7 -5 -7 -7 -6 -1 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 102 128 136 65 75 64 43 35 39 40 42 31 353 298 274 285 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 140 140 141 140 137 140 136 137 137 137 133 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 65 62 59 60 59 55 54 55 54 52 53 52 52 50 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 14 15 17 17 17 19 20 23 23 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 23 22 24 32 33 37 23 39 42 44 49 43 51 52 44 200 MB DIV 34 50 62 46 36 40 33 15 2 22 21 23 27 16 1 -5 -37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 -2 3 1 4 LAND (KM) 1669 1741 1816 1884 1946 2069 2207 2347 2279 2081 1881 1680 1493 1300 1098 906 723 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.5 125.4 126.2 127.0 128.6 130.4 132.2 134.2 136.1 138.0 140.0 142.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 19 19 17 15 16 15 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 12. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 26. 33. 39. 40. 39. 40. 41. 43. 43. 41. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 123.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 08/31/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.90 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 29.8% 22.2% 17.2% 13.7% 27.1% 44.9% 21.1% Logistic: 4.9% 21.2% 13.7% 6.1% 5.0% 2.2% 1.8% 3.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 17.6% 12.1% 7.8% 6.2% 9.8% 15.6% 8.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 13.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 18.0% 33.0% 84.0% SDCON: 5.1% 15.3% 10.0% 5.9% 4.6% 13.9% 24.3% 46.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 08/31/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##