* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * KIKO EP112025 08/31/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 47 50 57 65 71 76 76 78 78 82 81 80 80 79 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 47 50 57 65 71 76 76 78 78 82 81 80 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 50 56 63 69 73 74 74 76 78 78 77 75 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 6 3 7 9 9 9 11 7 7 9 7 9 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 -6 -10 -6 -6 -4 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 63 85 112 108 67 46 30 33 30 22 62 31 35 323 297 284 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 138 138 138 140 141 141 136 139 140 136 138 136 134 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 62 60 61 58 56 56 56 54 54 54 53 50 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 11 11 13 13 14 16 16 17 17 20 21 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 14 20 19 25 22 24 29 25 26 12 26 28 35 36 45 45 47 200 MB DIV 12 27 45 56 31 31 36 44 7 -3 14 36 25 15 -3 -7 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 4 4 LAND (KM) 1603 1668 1737 1800 1865 1987 2137 2277 2378 2190 1992 1780 1556 1376 1218 1025 786 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.7 124.6 125.3 126.1 127.7 129.6 131.3 133.2 135.0 136.9 139.0 141.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 19 19 19 19 20 19 18 18 19 15 16 15 14 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 13. 12. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 22. 30. 36. 41. 41. 43. 43. 47. 46. 45. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 122.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 KIKO 08/31/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.90 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 23.1% 20.1% 16.6% 13.1% 25.2% 31.0% 22.3% Logistic: 5.5% 21.2% 14.5% 7.0% 6.4% 3.7% 1.3% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 15.0% 11.5% 7.9% 6.5% 9.6% 10.8% 8.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 17.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 13.0% 25.0% 89.0% SDCON: 6.1% 16.0% 11.2% 6.9% 5.2% 11.3% 17.9% 48.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 KIKO 08/31/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##