* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ELEVEN EP112025 08/31/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 61 69 74 77 77 80 82 81 81 79 79 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 61 69 74 77 77 80 82 81 81 79 79 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 58 64 68 70 73 76 79 79 76 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 7 6 3 7 10 8 11 8 7 5 6 5 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -6 -6 -3 -6 -8 -8 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 77 53 61 89 119 26 63 39 23 27 34 35 56 16 279 265 256 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 139 137 136 138 140 141 136 136 140 136 139 136 132 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 62 58 58 54 53 52 54 53 52 49 46 42 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 11 11 12 13 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 21 20 25 26 31 27 39 25 25 30 37 38 38 49 53 200 MB DIV 0 11 27 45 59 27 23 33 26 3 6 22 37 16 -1 0 -29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 -3 3 1 LAND (KM) 1539 1605 1675 1738 1801 1949 2090 2223 2372 2220 2056 1843 1597 1362 1125 880 618 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 11 12 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 20 19 19 18 19 19 17 17 18 16 15 14 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 22. 31. 39. 44. 47. 47. 50. 52. 51. 51. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 121.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112025 ELEVEN 08/31/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.90 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 20.5% 17.9% 14.7% 0.0% 22.8% 23.4% 20.1% Logistic: 4.1% 13.8% 7.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 11.7% 8.5% 6.0% 0.7% 8.6% 8.4% 8.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 10.0% 61.0% SDCON: 3.5% 13.3% 8.7% 4.5% 1.3% 7.8% 9.2% 34.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112025 ELEVEN 08/31/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##