* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JULIETTE EP102025 08/27/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 8 13 15 17 21 30 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 254 245 245 240 225 216 222 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.1 23.8 23.3 22.0 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 104 100 95 81 74 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -52.1 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 53 49 44 39 32 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 18 19 16 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 9 -2 -14 -11 -18 -20 -29 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -4 -4 1 20 19 -18 -2 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 15 17 13 8 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 752 725 705 674 650 631 629 649 637 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.2 119.8 120.2 120.6 121.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -18. -24. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -16. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -14. -22. -28. -35. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.4 118.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102025 JULIETTE 08/27/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102025 JULIETTE 08/27/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##