* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 60 65 69 74 71 64 53 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 60 65 69 74 71 64 53 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 62 65 67 65 59 52 45 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 10 9 13 11 13 12 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 8 357 2 31 21 50 35 61 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 29.6 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.6 24.6 24.0 23.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 162 141 133 125 118 108 102 94 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 73 72 71 68 68 66 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 12 12 12 15 15 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 6 15 18 17 20 28 11 3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 70 48 46 60 20 -7 -13 -5 19 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -12 -12 -12 -10 -6 -3 -5 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 147 249 254 220 256 366 452 574 683 773 897 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 108.1 109.5 110.7 111.9 113.4 114.8 116.7 118.1 119.9 121.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 7 8 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 22 15 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 24. 21. 14. 3. -6. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.3 106.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 43.4% 35.0% 23.7% 14.2% 27.4% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 16.1% 12.4% 8.2% 4.9% 9.3% 6.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 12.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.5% 14.0% 9.7% 8.1% 6.4% 6.6% 4.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##