* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 59 67 69 66 60 52 44 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 59 67 69 66 60 52 44 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 52 57 58 57 54 48 41 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -6 -1 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 347 342 350 346 30 43 55 51 63 72 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.6 30.3 30.6 29.9 27.4 26.7 25.6 24.7 23.9 23.5 22.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 174 171 173 165 138 130 118 109 100 96 88 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 77 78 77 75 76 72 70 67 67 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 15 11 9 21 17 22 24 11 5 -8 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 62 72 80 48 42 15 5 -4 -4 9 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -4 -7 -9 -6 -6 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 106 113 168 261 287 264 362 456 546 665 745 834 922 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.2 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.3 21.7 21.7 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.3 105.0 106.7 108.1 109.5 111.9 113.5 115.0 116.6 118.1 119.5 120.9 122.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 15 13 10 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 38 28 21 15 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 20 CX,CY: -16/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 27. 29. 26. 20. 12. 4. -1. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 103.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 12.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 45.2% 30.4% 19.2% 13.8% 27.0% 31.8% 13.7% Logistic: 7.8% 23.2% 13.8% 6.8% 3.1% 8.3% 3.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 10.6% 4.4% 1.5% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 26.3% 16.2% 9.2% 5.7% 12.3% 11.9% 4.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 14.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.2% 20.1% 12.6% 7.1% 4.8% 9.1% 7.9% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##