* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 49 58 63 65 60 56 49 43 38 33 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 45 49 58 63 65 60 56 49 43 38 33 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 42 45 48 49 48 45 41 36 31 26 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 12 14 13 9 14 14 12 16 12 14 12 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 0 -5 -3 -4 -5 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 15 11 359 5 11 34 39 55 52 62 65 66 79 97 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 29.7 30.4 29.7 30.1 29.2 27.1 26.3 25.2 24.5 24.2 23.1 22.4 22.0 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 165 172 165 168 157 134 125 113 106 103 92 85 81 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 80 78 77 75 72 68 69 65 64 60 58 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 12 14 13 15 14 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 7 9 12 9 16 7 9 6 1 -10 -8 -24 -37 -36 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 84 59 90 68 44 39 14 24 -1 -19 0 -9 -12 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 -3 -7 -11 -8 -6 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 241 233 246 275 355 340 433 534 603 688 782 849 956 1094 1271 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.1 103.9 105.7 107.3 108.8 111.3 113.4 115.1 116.3 117.6 119.0 120.5 122.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 18 15 12 9 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 41 34 25 18 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 8. 5. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 8. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 28. 30. 25. 21. 14. 8. 3. -2. -7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 102.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 24.2% 18.8% 15.2% 11.6% 23.4% 24.0% 13.9% Logistic: 2.5% 12.3% 5.9% 2.6% 0.9% 5.3% 7.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 13.5% 8.6% 6.0% 4.2% 9.7% 10.4% 5.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 11.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.2% 14.2% 8.8% 5.0% 3.6% 10.3% 8.2% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##