* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/07/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 57 67 72 71 64 55 48 41 35 29 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 57 67 72 71 64 55 48 41 35 29 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 48 54 58 58 56 52 47 40 34 27 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 13 11 13 12 13 15 12 15 16 14 13 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 0 -3 -6 -2 -6 -4 -4 -1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 23 19 15 7 18 34 36 57 60 76 78 78 82 110 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.3 29.8 30.5 29.7 30.0 28.3 26.6 25.6 24.7 24.1 23.3 22.4 21.9 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 172 166 173 164 167 148 129 118 109 102 94 86 81 81 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 83 80 78 74 75 70 69 68 64 58 56 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 7 8 12 5 11 14 8 7 0 -4 -20 -42 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 92 92 64 91 45 44 -12 0 9 -20 -17 -16 -14 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 -1 -6 -5 -7 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 225 225 231 265 383 359 477 555 625 703 759 851 1034 1291 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.5 20.4 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.8 103.7 105.4 107.1 109.7 112.2 114.2 115.6 116.9 118.2 119.7 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 19 16 14 11 8 6 7 7 7 9 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 46 42 35 26 14 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 32. 37. 36. 29. 20. 13. 6. -0. -6. -10. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 100.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/07/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 34.5% 20.8% 16.8% 12.7% 25.8% 27.6% 16.9% Logistic: 6.2% 29.3% 16.3% 9.2% 3.6% 21.0% 19.9% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 18.3% 12.5% 5.5% 0.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 6.5% 27.4% 16.5% 10.5% 5.7% 16.7% 16.2% 7.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 22.0% 13.0% 7.0% 4.0% 7.0% 12.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.2% 24.7% 14.7% 8.7% 4.8% 11.8% 14.1% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/07/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##